So, we left earlier for work today, and a few inches had already fallen since the early morning hours. I turned on the radio in the car, and to my surprise I discovered that it was groundhog day. We said: "already?", and then listened as the radio announcer launched into a review of the results that were known at 7 am. I thought he was going to mention Punxsatawney Phil, Wiarton Willy and maybe one or two more, but he kept going and going. I began to wonder, how many of these rodents with a job are there?
Wiarton Willy's statue
We still got to work 25 minutes late, and when I mentioned groundhog day, my coworkers mostly also said: "already?" During the longer than usual drive in, we had heard all sorts of groundhog news on various stations, and the majority of them were predicting an early spring. After about an hour of groundhog indoctrination my curiosity was peaked. And this is why:
I can understand that we want some way to predict when winter will end. Give it two or three more weeks, and most of us will be mildly obsessed with the subject. And likely many years ago, pre radio, tv, internet, winter was a lot duller. But how do you get from there to waking a hibernating rodent, and asking it when spring will come? How old is the farmer's almanac? (The usual paragon of long term weather prediction.)
So I did some research. The farmer's almanac goes back to 1818. Groundhog day is presumed to have been celebrated since sometime in the 18th century. It was begun as a Pennsylvania German custom that has its roots in European weather folklore. It seems that the original animal consulted in the "old country" was a bear or a badger. How it came to be like that in Europe is anyone's guess, that's why it is called folklore. Groundhog day coincides with Imbolc, a celebration of the coming of spring, in the Celtic calendar. Clearly, lots of people are obsessed with spring.
Badgers and bears both occur in North America, and both are cuddly from far and far from cuddly. The badger's size belies it's ferociousness. They have been known to take on coyotes and win. The grizzly or the black bear needs no introduction. So I can very clearly understand why the change to consulting a groundhog happened.
I can sort of imagine this conversation that took place at some point. "It's time to read the coming of spring, folks. We think there's a grizzly asleep over there by that far hill, and there is a badger's burrow over there by the other hill, and .....oh...there's a groundhog burrow at the edge of my field. Which shall we wake up?"
I don't know.....let's meditate on it.
So, they brought a piece of tradition from home, and adjusted it a bit, and created a new festival in the process. I do think they stacked the deck in their favour with the interpretation of the prediction. If the animal emerges from its burrow, and it is a sunny day, it will see its shadow, go back inside and back to sleep, and this means six more weeks of winter. If it comes out on a cloudy day, it does not see its shadow, does not go back in, and therefore predicts an early spring. And when do you really need to hear that there will be an early spring? That's right, on one of those gray, cloudy winter days. And you are more likely to handle the other news well on a nice sunny day. Genius!
It turns out that there are 22 groundhogs making predictions. Given the snowstorm, guess what most of them predicted today? An early spring! In reality we will get a minimum of six more weeks of winter, no matter what the rodent thinks.He can dream on.
As far as snowmageddon is concerned, Chicago did get hit pretty hard. We got a good snowfall, worth pulling out the extremely geriatric snowblower for, and it is not over yet, but no one even thought of running to the store for candles or canned goods. We'll probably have another extended commute tomorrow, unless they clear and salt well.
Yeah, I'm dreaming.
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